🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still